Assembly Election Results: Most Exit Polls Failed to Get it Right
No one predicted a Congress victory in Chhattisgarh
New Delhi: Most exit polls failed to predict the massive mandate that the Congress got in Chhattisgarh, but got their forecast of a tight finish in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh right.
In Rajasthan and Telangana, the exit polls got the winner right but failed to gauge the level of the victory margins for the assembly elections for which the votes were counted on Tuesday.
They predicted a clear win for the Congress in Rajasthan, but when the results were out, the party could not achieve the magic figure on its own, getting 99 of 199 seats, just shy of the majority mark.
In Telangana, it was a landslide victory for the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti, which got 88 of the 119 constituencies, leaving the Congress trailing far behind with 19.
In the northeastern state of Mizoram, where the Congress was ousted from power, the regional Mizo National Front performed much better than the exit poll prediction, bagging 26 of 40 seats.
In Madhya Pradesh — where the results went down to the wire with the Congress getting 114 seats, just two short of a simple majority in the 230-member assembly, and the BJP 109 — ABP News predicted a clear defeat for the BJP (94 seats) and victory for the Congress (126).
While Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat gave 108-128 seats to the BJP and 95-115 to the Congress, India Today-Axis said the saffron party could win 102-120 seats as against 104-122 for the Congress.
The Times Now-CNX exit poll predicted a majority for the BJP in MP with 126 seats and gave the Congress a tally of 89 seats.
In Chhattisgarh, the BJP was reduced to 15 seats while the Congress bagged 68 seats in the 90-member assembly seat. The Ajit Jogi-led Janta Congress Chhattisgarh and the BSP alliance together bagged seven seats.
Quite in contrast to the declared results, the ABP and the Times Now-CNX exit polls predicted victory for the BJP. Though India Today-Axis said the Congress would triumph, it did not get its numbers right.
Times Now-CNX gave a simple majority to the BJP in Chhattisgarh, saying it may win 46 seats while the opposition Congress may bag 35 seats. ABP News said the BJP may get up to 52 seats against 35 of the Congress.
The India Today-Axis predicted that the Congress would end Chief Minister Raman Singh’s 15-year reign by winning anywhere between 55-65 seats. The BJP, it said, may be reduced to 21-31 seats.
All the exit polls said the alliance of former chief minister Ajit Jogi’s Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (Jogi) and the BSP may win between three and eight seats, which may help him to emerge as a king-maker in the event of a hung house. This was fairly accurate with the BSP getting two seats and the JCC five
In Rajasthan, India Today-Axis said the opposition party may win 119-141 out of 199 seats for which elections were held. The BJP, it added, may win 55-72 seats.