Modi Hai To Mumkin Hai: 26% Drop in Avg Monthly Job Creation: EPFO Data
March 2018 even reported a loss of 55,934 jobs.
Provident Fund data indicates formal job creation has been slowing down every month. From October 2018 to April 2019, every month has recorded a fall in job creation, except for November 2018 which witnessed a paltry rise of 1,262 jobs on average.
After the NSSO report showed unemployment rate at a 45-year high of 6.1 per cent in 2017-18, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has often shielded himself from attacks by citing the EPFO and lambasting the NSSO data for being a sample survey.
In an interview with Hindustan Times, he PM said, “According to EPFO and ESIC data, we have created 1 million jobs every month and 12 million jobs every year. In the last 4 years, 5.5 million new subscribers have joined NPS (the pension scheme). Approximately, 10 million people are benefitting from employment generation programs…”
But the EPFO data tells another story.
Mudit Kapoor reporting for Business Today (BT) extrapolated the data released by the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) for the period covering September 2017 to February 2019.
The October 2018 release (September 2017-August 2018) had a monthly average of 6.10 lakh jobs created. The November release reported an average monthly increase of 1,262 more jobs only. The December release (Sept 14-Oct 18), the average monthly job creation fell to 5.65 lakh jobs per month.
In the January 2019 release (Sep 17-Nov 18), average monthly job creation spiralled down to 4.90 lakh jobs per month. Dipping further to 4.52 lakh jobs a month, the February release (Sep 17-Dec 18) continued to register the downward trend in job creation. In the March 2019 release (Sep 17-Jan 18)average monthly job creation fell to 4.50 lakh jobs per month.
The report adds that according to the latest release (Sep 17-Feb 19) the monthly average job creation fell to 4.49 lakh jobs a month, a 26 per cent drop since the October 2018 release of EPFO.
Net Job Creation:
Looking at the net results, there has been a net rise in formal job creation for second the consecutive month.
Per the March release, (Sep 2017 to Jan 2019) a net 76.48 lakh jobs were created, while the February release (Sep 2017 to Dec 2018) registered 72.32 lakh job creation. However, the February release results were lower when compared to January release, which recorded 73.50 lakh jobs created between September 2017 and November 2018.
EPFO data indicates 80,86,696 jobs were created between September 2017 and February 2019.
In January this year, 8,94,973 jobs were created, which is a year on year growth of 140 per cent, but the January numbers have been revised by 1,543 jobs since EPFO’s previous release in March. On comparing 17 months worth of data spanning from September 2017 to January 2019, a downward revision of 4,23,897 jobs can be seen, the report says.
December 2018 witnessed the highest downward revision of 69,470 (9.8 per cent) jobs. Then comes November 2018 with a downward revision of 55,299 jobs (10.7 per cent), followed by October 2018 with a downward revision of 35,449 jobs (6.8 per cent) revision, BT reported.
Only March 2018 indicates a job loss with 55,934 jobs gone. This number was revised from the previous release of EPFO which indicated a job loss of 29,023.
Reportedly the EPFO cites that the reason for this is that “March 2018 figure is negative due to large number of exits reported in that month, in view of it being the closing month of the financial year.”
In February of this year 8,61,701 jobs were created. Among youth aged 22-25 years, formal employment for 2.36 lakh people was created. For people aged 29-35 years, 1.54 lakh jobs were created. Those above 35 years, witnessed a creation of 1.43 lakh jobs.
For each age group, the estimates are net numbers of newly enrolled members, who exited and then re-joined during the month. EPFO keeps updating employee records every month.