12 Namumkins That The Modi Govt Made Mumkin in Last 5 Years
All-time high unemployment, low GST earning and a slowdown in industrial growth — all part of Achhe Din.
The five years of the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party regime has seen much bluster and little work. The government’s lack of will to get things done has inadvertently resulted in India’s condition, economically speaking, suffering. At the cusp of the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, when the electorate and the BJP have almost forgotten about “achhe din“, it’s time to look at what the government has actually “achieved” and what “namumkin-s” have been made “mumkin” by PM Modi.
- Farm income growth slumped to a 14-year-low in the October-December 2018 quarter.
As per a report in the Indian Express, India’s farm sector output has grown at a mere 2.7 per cent year-on-year in October-December 2018, the lowest in eleven quarters. The reported added that what is worse for farmers in the country, is that October-December 2018 is also the second quarter in a row where growth in gross value added (GVA) from agriculture has been lower in nominal than in real terms. While farm production during the last quarter was 2.67 per cent higher than in October-December 2017, the increase in current value terms has been only 2.04 per cent because of prices falling by 0.61 per cent.
- Unemployment in India at 45-year high
The National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) periodic labour force survey showed that the unemployment rate in the country increased to a forty-five-year high of 6.1 per cent in 2017-18. According to the report, for the July 2017-June 2018 period, unemployment was the highest since 1972-1973. In 2011-12, the rate of unemployment was 2.2 per cent. The NSSO report showed that unemployment was higher in urban areas (7.3 per cent) as compared to rural areas (5.3 per cent). The unemployment rate among youth (15-29 years) tripled from five per cent in 2011-12 to 17.4 per cent in 2017-18.
- More than half of India’s working-age population out of the labour force
According to a report in the Business Standard, the NSSO’s latest jobs survey indicates that half of India’s working-age population (15 years and above) is not contributing to any economic activity. The labour force participation rate (LFPR) — the share of the people who are either working or available for work — stood at 49.8 per cent in 2017-18, falling sharply from 55.9 per cent in 2011-12. In 2004-05, 63.7 per cent of the population was part of the labour force. According to economists, a decline in the labour force participation rate, along with a high rate of unemployment, is a cause of concern.
- Indian exports of goods and services have gone down
As per a report in Live Mint, Indian exports of goods and services, as a percentage of GDP in the September 2017 quarter, was lower than what it was 12 years ago, in the September 2005 quarter. The GDP estimates, the report added, show that exports increased by 6.3 per cent at current prices in the December 2017 quarter, well below the 11.9 per cent growth in GDP at current prices, indicating the continued deterioration of the exports to GDP ratio.
- Unemployment after demonetisation and GST was worse than what the NSSO numbers suggested
The real impact of demonetisation and the goods and services tax (GST) on jobs has been much more than what was shown in the headline unemployment rate figures given in the NSSO’s report for 2017-18, reported Business Standard. According to the current weekly status (CWS) approach of the NSSO’s periodic labour force survey (LFPS), the unemployment rate stood at 8.9 per cent in 2017-18. Among females, the rate was 9.1 per cent — higher than in the usual status approach at 5.7 per cent. Among males, the rate stood at 8.8 per cent, higher than 6.2 per cent in the usual status. Unemployment in urban areas was higher than in rural areas — 9.6 per cent according to the CWS approach, as against seven per cent in the usual status approach. The rate was at 8.5 per cent in rural areas as per the CWS approach, compared to 5.3 per cent in regular status approach.
- GDP growth rate dropped to a five-quarter low of 6.6 per cent in October-December 2018
India’s economic growth slowed to a 5-quarter low of 6.6 per cent in the October-December period of this fiscal, according to government data released in February. The GDP at constant prices (2011-12) had grown at seven per cent in the October-December quarter of the previous financial year. “GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 35.00 lakh crore, as against Rs 32.85 lakh crore in Q3 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 6.6 per cent. GDP growth rates for Q1 and Q2 of 2018-19 at Constant Prices are eight per cent and seven per cent respectively,” the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said in a statement.
- New investments in India plunged to 14-year-low
Live Mint reported that as per fresh data from the project-tracking database of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), investments in the just-ended December quarter fell to a 14-year-low. Indian companies announced new projects worth Rs1 trillion in the December quarter, which was 53 per cent lower than what was announced in the September quarter, and 55 per cent lower than the year-ago period. The report added that new private sector projects fell 62 per cent in the December quarter compared with the September quarter, and 64 per cent compared with the December quarter of FY18.
- India’s core sector growth crashed to a 19-month low of 1.8 per cent in January
As per a report in the Business Standard, data released by the commerce and industry ministry showed that eight core industries — coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity — grew at the slowest pace in 19 months in January. According to the Commerce and Industry Ministry data, the output of the core sectors was brought down by the sudden contraction in electricity generation by 0.4 per cent in January, down from a 4.4 per cent rise in December, the daily reported.
- Defence Budget plunged to the lowest levels since 1962
As per reports, including money allocated to defence pensions and the defence ministry, the defence allocation for 2019-20 rose to Rs 4.31 trillion, just 6.35 per cent more than the revised estimates for 2018-19. This, the Business Standard reported, would be insufficient to cover even cost inflation and foreign exchange depreciation during the year. As per a report in The Diplomat, the total Ministry of Defence budget includes all allocations to the Ministry of Defence, revenue allocations to the three services, Defence R&D Organisation (DRDO) and Ordnance Factories and capital allocations to these entities and also defence pensions. “Thus, the actual allocation for the defence forces is only INR 3.01 trillion, of which only a third (INR 1.03 trillion) is allocated for capital expenditure, which goes into modernisation of the military,” the piece noted.
- GST collections dropped to Rs 97,247 crore in February
GST collections in February dropped to Rs 97, 247 crores in February from Rs 1.02 lakh crore in the previous month, the Finance Ministry said. The number of sales return or GSTR-3B filed for January up to February 28, 2019, is 73.48 lakh. “The total gross GST revenue collected in February 2019 is Rs 97,247 crore of which Central GST is Rs 17,626 crore, State GST (SGST) is Rs 24,192 crore, Integrated GST (IGST) is Rs 46,953 crore, and Cess is Rs 8,476 crore,” the ministry said in a statement.
- Low year-on-year growth in the Index of Industrial Production
As per the Reserve Bank of India’s Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey (OBICUS), in the quarter ended September 2018, the year-on-year growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in November and December 2018 were low at 0.3 per cent and 2.4 per cent, respectively, compared to the average growth of 5.7 per cent in the preceding seven months of 2018-19. Growth rates have tapered in all the three segments of the IIP – mining, manufacturing and electricity.
- India Inc’s profit share in India’s GDP reached a 15-year low in 2018
India Inc’s profit share in the country’s GDP has hit a 15-year low. The corporate profit-to-GDP ratio for 2018 stood at just 2.8 per cent, the lowest since 2003. As per a report in Business Standard, the share is down to a third compared to the peak of 7.8 per cent a decade ago and is also below the 20-year average of 4.4 per cent.