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Harvard Senior Fellow Predicts UPA Will Win 287 Seats, NDA 256

Salil Shetty has presented a state-wise analysis of the the 2019 Lok Sabha poll results.

Salil Shetty, a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Carr Centre for Human Rights Policy, has predicted that the UPA will get 287 seats and the NDA’s tally will stand at 256 in the 2019 Lok Sabha Sabha polls.

According to Shetty, who served as the secretary-general of Amnesty International, the Congress party, on its own, will win 117 seats while the BJP will get 168 seats.

The prediction shows that in a post-poll scenario, regional parties will play a key role in determining which party forms the government.

The analysis assumes that Jagan Reddy’s YSR Congress (Andhra Pradesh) and K Chandrashekhar Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samithi will align with the BJP post-poll.  Similarly, Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal will lend support to the BJP. However, the NDA’s tally will still fare lower than the UPA, which will be supported by Samajwadi Party  (led by Akhilesh Yadav) and Bahujan Samaj Party (led by Mayawati) and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool.

The BJP and its allies, according to Shetty, will win 6 seats in West Bengal, 30 in Uttar Pradesh, 14 in Rajasthan, 28 in Maharashtra, and 15 in Madhya Pradesh.

In Bihar, both BJP+ and Congress+ are expected to bag 20 seats each.

The Congress,  Shetty projects, will win 8 seats in Jharkhand (11 including allies), 13 in Kerala (19 including allies), 12 in Karnataka (18 including allies), 14 in Madhya Pradesh, 11 in Rajasthan. In Uttar Pradesh, with the support of the BSP-SP tie up, the UPA’s tally will jump up to 50 seats. In 2014 polls, the BJP had bagged 68 out of the 80 seats in the key state.

The results for the 2019 polls will be announced on May 23.

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