In Indian Express, Surjit Bhalla Claims BJP Will Win 24 Seats in Rajasthan & Congress Will Win 2; State Only has 25 Constituencies
Finding an error-free prediction for the 2019 election appears "namumkin".
Economist Surjit S Bhalla, who is a contributing editor at The Indian Express and consulting editor at Network 18, wrote an article titled “If exit polls are right, Election 2019 marks a structural change in Indian politics — the end of Congress’s dynastic rule” published on May 21. In it, he projects that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will get 293 seats and the Congress party will only win 47 seats.
However, a glaring error has been spotted in his analysis. In the table, he gives two kinds of forecasts for both parties — one, as stated in his book Citizen Raj which is two-months-old, and another “Updated” forecast which, according to him, is a “last-minute” adjustment. In this updated forecast, Bhalla says that the BJP will win 24 seats in Rajasthan and the Congress party will only win 2.
However, there are only 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan, making Bhalla’s Rajasthan forecast a mathematical impossibility.
Here is the table given in Bhalla’s article. Note the row for Rajasthan (highlighted in yellow).
Bhalla’s is one of many predictions in which such inconsistencies have been spotted. Examples include — Times Now-VMR exit poll giving 2.9 per cent vote share to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) despite the party not fielding any candidates in the state; India Today-Axis exit poll claiming Congress will win Chennai Central seat even though it has not fielded a candidate; News18-IPSOS Survey claiming LJP will win between 5-7 seats in Bihar despite fielding only six candidates. In fact, India Today-Axis exit poll was so rife with errors, that the Axis My India website took down the seat by seat and vote share prediction sometime after the errors were pointed out.